Forecast Lab

Oscar Odds 2027

Percentage chances for nominations and wins at the 99th Academy Awards, estimated from precursor momentum and historical-style weighting.

Profile

Projected Odds

Projected nomination and winner odds by contender
Film	Nomination %	Winner %

Range

Nomination and winner movement over recent model updates.

Nomination % Winner % Source update

Edit each contender's expected precursor profile and context.

Precursor momentum: blend of Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, PGA/DGA/WGA relevance.
Historical fit: genre/branch affinity, distributor track record, release corridor timing, and campaign capacity.
Buzz: festival reaction, critic sentiment, and social/industry chatter.
Nomination odds: calibrated by a logistic transform and normalized within category.
Winner odds: nomination odds multiplied by conversion factors learned from recent Academy cycles.